Client
UK Ministry of Defence
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Service
Discover, Explore
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Length of project
12 months
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What does the future of transport mean for the defence sector?
Understanding the future of mobility, and exploring it in a structured way, is essential if anyone is to understand what opportunities and risks that these futures pose. And this is not just important for transport decision makers, but for decision makers in all sectors that involve transporting anything. Which is any sector.
As part of its Global Strategic Trends 2050 work, the Development, Concepts, and Doctrine Centre of the UK Ministry of Defence approached us with a simple ask: what are the strategic trends that will affect the transport sector and where, and what scenarios for future transport will result from this?
This meant scanning the globe for major changes in society, economics, transportation, technologies, environmental factors, and urbanisation that would affect how transport operates, and where. These changes ranged from autonomous cars, to new shipping routes, to changes in global aviation demand, rapid urbanisation, and changes in immigration policy.
From the collection of a variety of evidence on changing global travel patterns, freight movements, review of the academic literature, reviewing patents granted in new mobility technologies, and through engagement with a global stakeholder group, over 50 strategic trends were identified and mapped. We then worked in collaboration with the Ministry to identify 6 trends that would drive future scenarios for mobility across the world.
As part of its Global Strategic Trends 2050 work, the Development, Concepts, and Doctrine Centre of the UK Ministry of Defence approached us with a simple ask: what are the strategic trends that will affect the transport sector and where, and what scenarios for future transport will result from this?
This meant scanning the globe for major changes in society, economics, transportation, technologies, environmental factors, and urbanisation that would affect how transport operates, and where. These changes ranged from autonomous cars, to new shipping routes, to changes in global aviation demand, rapid urbanisation, and changes in immigration policy.
From the collection of a variety of evidence on changing global travel patterns, freight movements, review of the academic literature, reviewing patents granted in new mobility technologies, and through engagement with a global stakeholder group, over 50 strategic trends were identified and mapped. We then worked in collaboration with the Ministry to identify 6 trends that would drive future scenarios for mobility across the world.
6
Future mobility scenarios developed
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50
Leading mobility experts engaged
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Outcomes
Taking these 6 key trends, we utilised a ‘scenario spider’ approach to develop 6 scenarios. A scenario narrative was constructed based upon characteristics such as impact on individual trips, impact on social networks, impacts on migration, and impacts upon transport business models.
This work was instrumental in the development of the 2018 version of the Ministry's Global Strategic Trends document.
We also used the evidence collected to create a Future Mobility Scenario Game.
This work was instrumental in the development of the 2018 version of the Ministry's Global Strategic Trends document.
We also used the evidence collected to create a Future Mobility Scenario Game.
Competencies Provided
Expert Interviews
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Technology Trend Analysis
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Scenario Planning
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"It is great bit of research and analysis that went above and beyond what we were expecting. We learned a lot about transport from it, and the approach by Mobility Lab was really engaging."
Lt Col Matthew Sargent
Lt Col Matthew Sargent