Mobility Lab UK
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Future of Transport 2050

Client

UK Ministry of Defence

Service

Discover, Explore

Length of project

12 months

What does the future of transport mean for the defence sector?

Understanding the future of mobility, and exploring it in a structured way, is essential if anyone is to understand what opportunities and risks that these futures pose. And this is not just important for transport decision makers, but for decision makers in all sectors that involve transporting anything. Which is any sector.

As part of its Global Strategic Trends 2050 work, the Development, Concepts, and Doctrine Centre of the UK Ministry of Defence approached us with a simple ask: what are the strategic trends that will affect the transport sector and where, and what scenarios for future transport will result from this?

This meant scanning the globe for major changes in society, economics, transportation, technologies, environmental factors, and urbanisation that would affect how transport operates, and where. These changes ranged from autonomous cars, to new shipping routes, to changes in global aviation demand, rapid urbanisation, and changes in immigration policy.

From the collection of a variety of evidence on changing global travel patterns, freight movements, review of the academic literature, reviewing patents granted in new mobility technologies, and through engagement with a global stakeholder group, over 50 strategic trends were identified and mapped. We then worked in collaboration with the Ministry to identify 6 trends that would drive future scenarios for mobility across the world.

6

Future mobility scenarios developed

50

Leading mobility experts engaged

Outcomes

Taking these 6 key trends, we utilised a ‘scenario spider’ approach to develop 6 scenarios. A scenario narrative was constructed based upon characteristics such as impact on individual trips, impact on social networks, impacts on migration, and impacts upon transport business models.

This work was instrumental in the development of the 2018 version of the Ministry's Global Strategic Trends document.

We also used the evidence collected to create a Future Mobility Scenario Game.

Competencies Provided

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Expert Interviews

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Technology Trend Analysis

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Scenario Planning

Tell us what you need

Get in contact with us, and lets talk about how we can help you

"It is great bit of research and analysis that went above and beyond what we were expecting. We learned a lot about transport from it, and the approach by Mobility Lab was really engaging."

Lt Col Matthew Sargent

  • Home
  • About
    • Meet the Team
  • What We Do
    • Discovery
    • Explore
    • Decide
    • Scenario Planning Training
    • Rapid Fire Trend Briefing
  • Projects
    • Community Projects >
      • Let's keep Flitwick, Ampthill, Maulden, and Westoning Socially Distant
      • Rural Mobility Discovery Project
    • Making a Change >
      • New Normal?
      • #TPSCOVID19RESPONSE
      • Transport Planning Camp
    • Strategy Projects >
      • E-scooters in the Solent
      • Interim Transport Strategy for Southend
      • Future Transport Scenarios for Nottingham
      • Future of Transport 2050
      • Exploring Marine Autonomy
      • Communicating Future Mobility Scenarios
  • Toolset
  • Blog